Prediction markets on Robinhood Stock Tokens that pay an early call more than a late one. UP or DOWN in USDG, settled by Chainlink, live on Robinhood Chain.
Will NVDA close UP today? On Hunch you bet UP or DOWN on a Robinhood Stock Token in USDG, and Chainlink's price at the opening and closing bell decides it. The earlier you call it, the more you are paid. Live on Robinhood Chain mainnet: https://vpm.playhunch.xyz
The problem
"Will it close up today?" is the question retail traders ask every morning, and there is no simple product for it. Options answer it with an options chain. Prediction markets mostly list sports, crypto and politics, and stock markets on them stay thin: an order book needs market makers, and in a pool market a bet placed one minute before the close is paid the same multiple as one placed at the open. So nobody bets early, late money dilutes the people who were right first, and operators close betting before the most interesting minutes.
What Hunch changes
Hunch settles with the Vested Parimutuel, a payout rule published by Hunch Research (https://www.playhunch.xyz/vpm-whitepaper). The moment a stake lands, it is paid to the people already on the other side.
Bet early: if you are right, you collect every dollar the other side adds after you.
Bet late: you get your stake back plus whatever the other side adds after you, so the market stays open until the closing bell.
No dilution: your payout can only go up after you bet.
Every dollar in is paid out, minus 2% of winners' gains.
Example (illustration, pinned by a contract test): in a week-long NVDA market, Mei bets 20 USDG on UP on Tuesday morning and is paid 69.16 (3.45×). Ben bets 50 USDG on UP five minutes before Friday's close and is paid 56.25 (1.12×). An ordinary pool would pay both 2.12×.
How a bet works
Send USDC from Arbitrum One or Base through Across; it arrives as USDG on Robinhood Chain. No ETH needed.
Pick UP or DOWN on a daily market, 1 to 25 USDG. The quote shows the least you are paid if you win.
Sign once. The USDG signature binds the market, side and amount; Hunch's relayer submits it and pays the gas.
After the closing bell anyone can settle the market with the two Chainlink rounds in effect at the open and the close. Payouts arrive in your wallet automatically.
Who pays whom, and what happens when something goes wrong
Bettors pay each other. Hunch keeps 2% of winners' gains and nothing from losers or refunds.
Hunch seeds both sides of every market so the first bettor has someone to be paid by. The rule guarantees the seed cannot lose, so listing every ticker every session is a float, not a subsidy.
Full refund if the price did not move, if a Chainlink price is stale or out of range, or if Robinhood pauses the token's price for a corporate action for more than a day.
Nobody, Hunch included, can move a stake, set a price, or stop claims, refunds or settlement. Listing a market and pausing new bets are the only privileged actions.
Live on Robinhood Chain (chain 4663)
Deployed Oct 2, source-verified (Sourcify exact match), owned by a 2-of-3 Safe, no upgradeable proxies:
HunchVPM: https://robinhoodchain.blockscout.com/address/0x1c23356536eA8E30F53481b971098aC30DA43576
StockRoundResolver: https://robinhoodchain.blockscout.com/address/0xb3336ab62cB57841CDEA2CA43d62F2D2c5287721
HunchMarketFactory: https://robinhoodchain.blockscout.com/address/0x2EdcCA1e40AEACD3ef2d5FcBFEAC5B356e1b6676
First markets listed on-chain: NVDA and TSLA dailies for Monday Oct 5, taking bets now and settling at Monday's close (20:00 UTC). AAPL and COIN are allow-listed.
Every number on https://vpm.playhunch.xyz/proof is a chain read: markets, settlements, bettors, USDG staked and paid.
Beta and unaudited. Not offered to persons in the US, Canada, the UK or Switzerland.
Contract quality
HunchVPM is the paper's reference contract plus ten listed changes; DIFF.md in the repo is the literal diff.
It matches the reference on all 118 published conformance vectors. Invariant fuzzing covers solvency, conservation and pause scope, and the full flow runs against real USDG and real Chainlink feeds on a fork of chain 4663.
Two adversarial reviews before launch, every finding fixed or triaged in SECURITY.md, Slither findings triaged.
The research
The Vested Parimutuel (Raj Karia, Hunch Research, 2nd ed., Sep 2026) proves seven properties and replays the rule on 5,173 markets from the Hunch Cup tape (paper money; most traders were agents deployed by participants). Winners arriving in the last 10% of a market took a median 70.1% of the losing pool in an ordinary pool and 0.08% under the rule. The opening seed lost money in 0 of 5,173 markets.
Team and track record
Raj Karia, founder of Hunch and author of the paper. Hunch has run prediction markets on Base since May 2026: 78,501 markets opened and settled by its own resolvers, and the four-week Hunch Cup with 1,034,149 paper-USDC trades.
What's next
Every Stock Token on Robinhood Chain, every trading session, then weekly and range markets.
Live: https://vpm.playhunch.xyz
Proof: https://vpm.playhunch.xyz/proof
Paper: https://www.playhunch.xyz/vpm-whitepaper