Vigil: Bittensor subnet where miners predict DeFi liquidations, validators verify on-chain. Democratizes prediction intelligence worth $2.4B/year, currently locked in private bots.
Vigil is a Bittensor subnet that creates decentralized liquidation prediction intelligence for DeFi lending protocols. In 2024 alone, $2.4 billion was liquidated across DeFi platforms, borrowers received no warning, while sophisticated liquidators with private prediction bots captured all the value. The intelligence to predict these liquidations exists, but it's locked away in proprietary systems, creating an information asymmetry that harms everyday users and concentrates profits among a few well-capitalized players.
Vigil democratizes this intelligence by creating a competitive marketplace where miners predict which lending positions will be liquidated, validators verify predictions against on-chain reality, and TAO rewards the most accurate predictors. Every hour, validators snapshot at-risk positions across major protocols (Aave, Compound, Morpho), miners submit their predictions, and after a 6-hour observation window, predictions are scored against actual liquidation events recorded on-chain.
What makes Vigil uniquely suited for Bittensor is its objective verifiability, liquidations are immutable on-chain facts with clear timestamps and transaction hashes. There's no subjectivity, no disputes, and no need for human judgment. Validators verify outcomes, not quality. This creates a pure proof-of-intelligence system where the best predictive models naturally rise to the top.
The subnet introduces novel mechanisms including danger zone partial credit (rewarding miners who correctly identified risk even when positions were rescued), rolling 24-hour aggregation for statistical significance despite low daily liquidation counts, and a protocol-agnostic adapter architecture that makes expansion to new lending platforms trivial. The resulting intelligence serves three customer segments: borrowers who want early warning alerts, liquidators seeking better timing, and protocols monitoring systemic risk.
Vigil doesn't just create value, it redistributes it. By commoditizing prediction intelligence while leaving execution to capital-intensive liquidators, it opens DeFi risk management to anyone with analytical skills and compute, not just those with $100K+ in capital and MEV infrastructure.
We are just submitting our idea for this subnet ideathon.
None for now