An Earnings Market for the Stock Tokens Robinhood Put Onchain

Robinhood has already validated the idea that people want to trade around earnings.

At HOOD Summit on September 29, 2026, Robinhood announced Cboe-powered Earnings Contracts for eligible brokerage customers.

But the product does not extend to Robinhood Stock Tokens.

Those tokens trade on Robinhood Chain and have their own on-chain price feeds, yet a holder of TSLA, NVDA, AAPL or another Stock Token has no native market for the event that often matters most: the company's earnings release and the price move immediately around it.

That is the gap Beat targets.

There are already 70,133 addresses holding the TSLA Stock Token and 184,721 holding the NVDA Stock Token on Robinhood Chain mainnet, based on Blockscout holder counts read on October 2, 2026.

Beat is built for that existing asset base. It turns the Stock Token itself into the reference for an open, programmable earnings market.

What a Beat Market Actually Lets You Trade

Beat is not a generic prediction market where someone asks a question and users vote YES or NO.

The contract defines an exact price event.

For a given Stock Token, a market specifies:

Reference round

The Chainlink price used as the starting point.

Fix round

The Chainlink price used to determine the outcome.

Direction

UP or DOWN.

Threshold

The minimum percentage move required to win.

A market can therefore represent:

TSLA moves up at least 5% from the earnings reference to the fix.

or:

TSLA falls at least 3%.

The user is not predicting an abstract outcome.

They are taking a position on the magnitude and direction of the move.

That distinction is what makes the product useful for both traders and holders.

The Earnings Ladder

The core UX is the event ladder.

Instead of forcing a user to choose one vague prediction such as "Will Tesla go up?", Beat can create several contracts around the same earnings event:

Direction	Threshold
UP	3%
UP	5%
DOWN	3%
DOWN	5%

All four markets use the same earnings event and the same underlying Stock Token feed.

This creates an on-chain distribution of market views around the event.

A trader who thinks Tesla will have a large upside surprise can take the appropriate UP rung.

A holder worried about a large earnings drawdown can take one of the DOWN rungs.

A user who simply wants a binary expression of a specific move gets exactly that.

The ladder can also be interpreted together. The UI groups rungs belonging to the same event and shows the resulting pooled odds, so a judge can see how a single earnings event becomes a structured market rather than four unrelated bets.

The Part That Turns It Into a Hedge

Beat does not stop at "pick a side."

The /hedge page starts from the position a user already owns.

Connect a Robinhood Chain address and Beat reads its:

TSLA Stock Token balance
NVDA Stock Token balance
uiMultiplier
Current Chainlink price

It then walks through every open DOWN rung in the relevant ladder and determines the YES stake required to cover the holder's loss at that move.

That means the interface can answer a much more practical question:

"I already own $X of NVDA. How much should I stake on a 5% DOWN market if NVDA drops?"

The calculation accounts for the fact that a pari-mutuel market can become too thin to fully hedge the underlying position. When the opposite pool cannot cover the entire loss, the UI shows the stake that produces the highest payout and the percentage of the loss it actually covers. The sizing logic is checked against brute force in the web test suite.

That is a fundamentally different user experience from a conventional prediction market.

The user begins with an asset they already own.

Beat tells them how the market can be used against that position.

Why Beat Has To Be Built Differently on Robinhood Chain

The underlying feeds create several constraints that a generic prediction-market contract would not handle correctly.

The Reference Cannot Be Visible Before Trading Ends

Robinhood Stock Token feeds effectively operate on a market-day schedule rather than continuously printing prices.

Across normal weekends, the gap from the Friday close to the next heartbeat can be roughly 50 to 61 hours, with even longer gaps around Labor Day.

Beat therefore does not simply say "use the price at Friday close."

It imposes a 25-hour reference guard.

createMarket requires:

tradeCutoff + HEARTBEAT_GUARD <= refCutoff

with HEARTBEAT_GUARD = 1 day + 1 hour.

The reference is then proven on-chain as the last valid Chainlink round before the reference cutoff, using the neighbouring round to establish that no later qualifying round existed.

If the reference was already visible before trading closed, the market is voided.

A trader therefore cannot wait to see the reference and then decide whether to enter.

This timing logic is one of the most important pieces of the protocol because it prevents an otherwise subtle form of informational leakage.

The Stock Token Is Part of the Market's Security Model

Beat also binds each Chainlink feed to its corresponding Stock Token.

That mapping is written once.

The market can only use the token associated with the approved feed.

This matters because the token itself exposes state that can affect settlement.

Robinhood Stock Tokens use ERC-8056 and expose:

oraclePaused()

and:

uiMultiplier

Beat tracks both.

If the oracle is paused, reference and settlement are blocked.

If the token's multiplier changes during the market window because of a split or another corporate action, the market is voided and all participants are refunded.

There are also grace periods for markets where a valid reference or fix never becomes available.

This turns the Stock Token from a simple price source into part of the market's validation logic.

Settlement Is Fully Onchain

Every market follows a deterministic lifecycle:

Trading

Users select YES or NO and stake USDG.

Reference

Anyone can submit the qualifying Chainlink round.

Fix

Anyone can submit the qualifying round at the end of the event.

Settlement

The contract calculates the move and determines the winning side.

Claim

Winners withdraw their proportional share of the losing pool.

The payout is pari-mutuel.

Every dollar on the losing side becomes part of the winning pool, less the protocol fee.

There is no admin who decides the winning price and no authority that can retroactively cancel a successful market.

The permissionless model also applies after trading. The keeper makes the application convenient, but the critical reference, settlement and void operations are available to anyone.

One Signature To Enter

The payment path is designed to remove unnecessary friction.

A bettor signs a single EIP-3009 ReceiveWithAuthorization message containing the market, side, amount, buyer and nonce.

A relayer submits the transaction and pays the gas.

The relayer simulates the purchase before sending it and only treats the stake as complete after the mined transaction contains the expected Bought event. If the relayer is unavailable, the interface falls back to the normal approve-and-buy path.

That gives Beat two modes without changing the market itself:

gasless UX when the relayer is online

direct wallet execution when it is not

Settlement remains in real Paxos testnet USDG rather than an internal accounting token.

The Market Calendar Is Connected to SEC Filings

Earnings markets have another problem that is easy to overlook.

The date itself can change.

Beat's keeper therefore checks company filings on SEC EDGAR before creating an earnings ladder.

For Tesla, the keeper reads the company's 8-K and extracts the announced reporting date. The confirmed date is then used to generate the market window.

The keeper also checks for duplicate markets, uses the contract's timing rules, skips appropriate holidays and handles NYSE close times with daylight-saving changes.

This is important because the market calendar is part of the financial primitive.

A perfectly designed settlement contract is not very useful if it creates an earnings market around the wrong event date.

What Is Already Running

Beat is not currently just a contract plus mock frontend.

The Robinhood Chain testnet deployment is Blockscout verified and has 16 markets across seven Stock Tokens.

The live set includes:

NVDA
TSLA
AAPL
MSFT
GOOGL
META
AMZN

The deployment currently contains weekly move markets, Tesla's Q3 earnings ladder and an NVDA weekend-gap market.

The current opening book has YES and NO participation across all 16 markets, with 78 USDG seeded by the team's Beat wallet.

That amount is explicitly the team's opening seed, not claimed external trading volume. What it demonstrates is that the complete market lifecycle is already populated and executable on the live deployment rather than being a static demo.

A Real Market Has Gone Through the Entire Lifecycle

One deployed market has already completed:

creation → YES stake → NO stake → reference → settlement

For the completed NVDA market:

Reference

230.4235

Fix

229.1425

Move

-0.556%

Outcome

Payout pool

9.9 USDG

Settlement transaction

0x44b527cfb00b5e8eae6418c8cb53003162163a0ff503c0cea0a9f30c194222bb

The resulting payout is claimable by the winning wallet through claim(3) and the settled state is stored in the contract.

The product therefore has something valuable for a hackathon demo:

the judge can inspect an actual settlement instead of watching a fake animation of one.

Historical Earnings Can Be Replayed Against Real Feeds

Beat also replays historical earnings events using live Robinhood Chain feed data.

For Tesla's Q2 2026 report, the fork tests reproduce the earnings move and correctly settle:

both UP rungs as NO

both DOWN rungs as YES

The test suite therefore checks the actual setReference and settle path rather than only testing isolated arithmetic.

The same suite includes six fuzzed money-path properties and invariants covering payout correctness, one-sided books, threshold boundaries, token binding and authorization constraints.

Security and Failure Handling

A market involving real money needs well-defined failure paths.

Beat handles the obvious failure cases explicitly.

Paused oracle

Settlement stops.

Corporate action

The market is voided and participants are refunded.

Missing reference

The market eventually expires and refunds.

Missing fix

The market eventually expires and refunds.

Empty side

The market cannot settle with no counterparty and is voided.

Invalid historical round

Neighbour-round verification rejects it.

Wrong token

The feed-to-token binding rejects it.

Three security review rounds produced 8 findings, all resolved in the deployed source, with tests attached to the fixes.

Live Contracts

Robinhood Chain Mainnet, 4663

BeatMarket

0x648FCac454f46622b9c3C107cbef5Bb5b25331dC

Creation transaction

0x869ab613dad27e9c2b48143f72154193641a03a97bde8c73f8cbe51d21f23e7a

The mainnet deployment binds seven Stock Token feeds:

TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, META and AMZN

Paxos USDG

0x5fc5360D0400a0Fd4f2af552ADD042D716F1d168

Robinhood Chain Testnet, 46630

BeatMarket

0x066Bd0eB74d31AdDEF2E6e09cAeD72da4def9B49

Verified on Blockscout

Paxos testnet USDG

0x7E955252E15c84f5768B83c41a71F9eba181802F

NVDA mirror feed

0x7155Cfe07F90c5E34A248396eb01530981998864

TSLA mirror feed

0x6670e08A777BCDAA45092532F62213E1Bf43B9Aa

Current Market Surface

The deployed market set is intentionally broader than a single earnings demo.

It currently combines:

Earnings

Tesla Q3 four-rung ladder:

UP 3%, UP 5%, DOWN 3%, DOWN 5%.

Weekly

UP 1% markets covering the allowlisted tickers.

Event-style move markets

Additional multi-threshold TSLA markets.

Weekend

An NVDA market covering the Friday-to-Monday move.

That matters because Beat is not a one-off earnings contract.

The same primitive can express an earnings event, a weekly directional move or a weekend gap without changing the underlying settlement model.

The User Experience

The application exposes the market mechanics instead of hiding them.

A user can browse the event ladder, inspect the historical payout record for each threshold, choose YES or NO, sign a gasless stake, monitor their bets and see the eventual on-chain settlement.

The /hedge interface adds the portfolio view.

The app reads the connected address's real Stock Token holdings and turns them into suggested hedge sizes.

The homepage also displays the on-chain market lifecycle and settlement data, while the keeper continuously maintains the market calendar and settlement process.

Why This Could Become Useful

The most important characteristic of Beat is that it starts from an asset people already hold.

A Stock Token holder does not need to discover an unrelated prediction market, deposit into a separate platform and manually figure out how much exposure they have.

The position already exists on Robinhood Chain.

The price feed already exists.

The earnings event already exists.

Beat connects those pieces.

That creates a natural loop:

Hold the Stock Token → approach an earnings event → see the expected historical move distribution → size a hedge or take a directional view → stake USDG → settle automatically

The same infrastructure can then be reused beyond earnings.

The Bigger Product

Beat is not trying to compete with every prediction market.

Its edge is much more specific.

It is building event-driven financial markets around tokenized stocks that already exist on an on-chain brokerage rail.

Robinhood has demonstrated demand for earnings contracts inside its brokerage.

Robinhood Chain already has a large population of Stock Token holders.

Beat connects those two worlds.

And it does more than put a YES/NO button on a chart.

It has:

event ladders

portfolio-aware hedge sizing

Stock Token specific oracle protections

corporate-action handling

SEC-backed earnings scheduling

gasless staking

permissionless settlement

real USDG pools

historical earnings replays

live market creation and maintenance

The result is a product that can feel much closer to an on-chain options-like earnings terminal than a conventional prediction market.

The key idea is not simply that users can bet on earnings.

It is that a Stock Token can become the starting point for an entire market of event-specific risk management and speculation, with the position, oracle, hedge size and settlement all connected on-chain.

Beat

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